5min chapter

The Tim Ferriss Show cover image

#634: Niall Ferguson, Historian — The Coming Cold War II, Visible and Invisible Geopolitics, Why Even Atheists Should Study Religion, Masters of Paradox, Fatherhood, Fear, and More

The Tim Ferriss Show

CHAPTER

What Is Contingency?

Contingency means a relatively small event or decision. It can be something accidental, has very major consequences. This year, most people thought that if Russia invaded Ukraine, the Ukrainian government would quite quickly fold. Vololomius Alinsky gave his famous response: I don't want an air ticket, I want ammunition. And Zelensky's courage when they were closing in a cave with a high probability that they would assassinate the Russians turned the course of history. The fatal mistake is to write history as if it was bound to happen the way it happened.

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