#76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira)
Increments
Bayesian Reasoning and Human Cognition
This chapter explores the debate over Bayesianism, examining whether it reflects how humans think and make decisions or if it serves as a standard for rational agents. The speakers discuss the implications of Bayesian reasoning on understanding probabilities, decision-making under uncertainty, and the risks of catastrophic events, such as nuclear extinction and superintelligence. Through philosophical discussions, they emphasize the need for rigorous standards in evaluating probability estimates and examine the interplay between human cognition and probabilistic interpretations.
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