Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
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What Is the Base Factor?
Sumobe: When people present evidence against your view, you don't automatically kind of figure out what is the right base factor. He says sometimes people will get fairly weak evidence and interpret it as much stronger evidence than it really is. Sumobe: Another error people make is they don't take into account the prior probability. So when should you really believe you're prior or put a lot of weight on it, versus up dating based on things hat you see?
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