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THINKING FAST AND SLOW - Commented Book
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The Base Rate of Blue Cabs in the City
Two versions of the problem are mathematically indistinguishable, but they are psychologically quite different. People who read the first version do not know how to use the base rate and often ignore it. Causal base rates change your view of how the individual case came to be. Statistical base rates are generally under weighted and sometimes neglected altogether when specific information about the case at hand is available.
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