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8min chapter
538’s New Forecast Says The Election Is A Toss-Up
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Analyzing Polling Biases for Election Forecast
The chapter dives into the complexities of interpreting a new election forecast by discussing historical polling biases and potential shifts in the election landscape. It explores challenges in predicting biases accurately, such as underrepresentation of support due to protest polling among certain demographic groups. The chapter also emphasizes the importance of using a forecast model to simulate potential election outcomes and the limitations of solely relying on polls.
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