Four: Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions
Effective Altruism: An Introduction – 80,000 Hours
The Probability of China and the United States Going to War in the 20th Century
The probability theu s and china goes to war in the 20 first century? Here's a kind of a famous reference class forecaster for this. I think it's that nine out of 13 times that there's been a big a transition in which is the most a militarily powerful country in the world, e heve gone to war. But i think there's good reasons not ting ly take that reference class. We any othe reference class for that we can use.
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