Why COVID wasn't the worst-case pandemic

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Dr. Michael Osterholm, one of the nation’s foremost infectious disease experts, joins Chuck to confront the unsettling reality that Covid-19 was not “the big one.” From SARS and MERS as early warnings to the looming possibility of coronaviruses that are far more deadly than Covid, Osterholm argues that pandemics are inevitable—and the U.S. is dangerously unprepared. He discusses the political failures that prevented a serious after-action review, the collapse of government vaccine infrastructure, and why misinformation and anti-vaccine sentiment have left public health more vulnerable than ever.

The conversation also looks forward: how mRNA technology could still be a game-changer, why developing respirators and updating building codes matter, and the urgent need for leadership with real bio-threat experience. Osterholm warns that everything from resurging childhood diseases to the rise of avian flu and the risk of bioterrorism are on the horizon, and he offers a sobering reminder—science is not fixed truth, it’s the pursuit of truth. This episode is a wake-up call about what it will take to be ready for the next pandemic, which could be far worse than Covid-19.

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Timeline:

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00:00 Dr. Michael Osterholm joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Are American leaders ready for the next pandemic?

02:30 Covid wasn’t “the big one” pandemic

03:30 SARS & MERS gave a warning about coronaviruses

04:30 Coronaviruses in the wild that are as infectious as covid but more deadly

05:15 Death rate of Covid was relatively low, could be much worse

06:45 Pandemics are inevitable, and could be much worse than covid

07:30 Politics didn’t allow for an after action report on pandemic response

09:00 We’ll never know if covid was from a lab or nature

10:30 We could have vaccines ready before pandemics begin, not doing the work

11:15 Did you write your book assuming a crank like Kennedy would run HHS?

11:45 Kennedy is the biggest challenge public health has faced in decades

12:30 Pandemics cause society to lose its collective mind

14:00 Anti vaxx anger came from people being angry about the pandemic

14:30 How do you prepare for a pandemic if the government isn’t leading?

15:15 MRNA vaccines are easier to produce at scale

15:45 $500 million in funding cut for MRNA vaccines

16:45 CDC vaccine board is now completely dysfunctional

19:15 Where does medical research go without government backing?

19:45 PEPFAR was one of the best uses of American soft power

21:00 There’s nobody in the White House with bio threat experience

21:45 Trump 1.0 had a credible pandemic response plan. 2.0 doesn't.

23:00 We will see diseases come back that we thought were gone

24:45 What preventative measures can be taken without the government?

25:30 Lockdowns don’t work, surges of cases are inevitable

26:15 Lockdowns were over by June, impact was overstated

27:30 Lockdowns should only be based on hospital use/capacity

29:15 Don’t do lockdowns, maximize medical care instead

30:30 Public misconception that vaccine would make people immune 

31:30 News media needs to be better at messaging public health info

33:30 Risk to kids raised significantly with new covid variants

34:45 Updates to scientific info get labeled as “flip flopping” when it’s normal

35:30 Science is not truth, it’s the pursuit of truth

36:30 Kennedy now linking acetaminophen to autism

38:30 People dismiss health risks that fit their lifestyle, like drinking red wine

39:45 Half the country was anti-expert, now anti-expert’s are in charge

41:30 BARDA was the envy of the world

43:00 What else should we be doing in preparation for the next “big” pandemic?

44:45 We need to develop a comfortable N95 respirator for the public

45:45 Updating building codes to help prevent respiratory virus transmission

48:15 MMR vaccine doesn’t require a booster, likely confirms lifelong immunity

51:30 Theme parks in Orlando will pressure government over vaccine mandate

52:30 What’s the status of H5N1 bird flu?

54:15 There will be another flu virus pandemic, we just don’t know when

55:00 We’re producing more poultry than ever, lots of opportunity for exposure

56:00 We should be vaccinating livestock and poultry

57:00 We’re more vulnerable than ever to a bioterrorism attack

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