Humanizing Mistakes: Analytical vs. Duration Errors

Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom (The Warren Buffett Way) and Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.

Two legendary investors and authors. One hour packed with timeless wisdom on long-term thinking and wealth creation. This is the conversation we’ve been wanting to have—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we did.

Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧

I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.

This episode of The 100 Year Thinkers brings together Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, and Bogumil Baranowski for a deep conversation on what makes a great business, why long-term investing is so hard, and how the world’s best investors think about mistakes, management, conviction, and the durability of competitive advantages. We explore perfect businesses, the pain of missed opportunities, the behavioral traps that derail long-term compounding, and how to navigate rapid technological change while keeping your investment process grounded.
Topics covered:
• What defines a perfect business and why so few qualify
• The role of capital efficiency, returns on capital, and cash generation
• Why omissions are often investors’ most painful mistakes
• How to build conviction to hold great companies through drawdowns
• The behavioral edge of true long-term investing
• Management quality, insider ownership, incentives, and red flags
• Why owner earnings and free cash flow matter more than GAAP earnings
• The challenge of evaluating fast-changing industries and staying within your circle of competence
• How AI, networks, and scale economics reshape competitive moats
• Portfolio management lessons, starter positions, and letting winners run
Timestamps:
00:00 Perfect businesses and long-term economics
01:49 Defining the perfect stock
03:27 Holding long term through volatility
07:30 Behavioral inefficiencies and market structure
09:15 Humanizing mistakes and decision making
14:28 Errors of omission and painful missed opportunities
19:00 What to look for in management
24:27 Signals from financial disclosures and actions
26:00 Key quantitative metrics for long-term compounders
34:04 Owner earnings vs GAAP earnings
37:00 Intangible investment and modern cash flow analysis
38:50 Circle of competence and fast-changing industries
42:00 Large language models, networks, and moats
43:52 AI use cases and productivity
45:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guests
46:25 Episode recap and takeaways

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement

Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.