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Simeon Campos on Short Timelines, AI Governance and AI Alignment Field Building
The Inside View
The Probability of a Financial Market Crash
The probability then of the three predictions being wrong like you required to have one of them being wrong to better timeline or script them I guess the problem is there are pretty autocorrelated like maybe there was a reason I don't see right now which makes that these are these are probability just like evens won't happen so I guess I'd say 10 percent probably but they be wrong at the same time um maybe 15. The other thing which makes me various and certain is if there's a huge financial market crash or like we have nowYeah but right now we haven't had a major systemic bank which goes bankrupt which almost happened earlier October with Craig Hadiswiz. If that happens I
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