#63: Why Polls Matter with G. Elliott Morris
Opinion Science
00:00
The Language of Uncertainty in the Model
i er, i think the weather example is kind of interesting. You know, when you get the weather forecast, i it's actually telling you that, like, in your tiny area, you have a 70 % chance of rain. And we should expect that, cause that's what 70 % means. There are multiple factors driving the uncertainty in the model. It's not just that the forecast could be wrong. It's also that they can't actually forecast for your exact locations. The single estimate as abla ree would already go a long way toward increasing lettercy among people who pay attention to the pols. I mean, imagine if every news outlit had like a page on
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