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Article: Reducing global catastrophic biological risks
80,000 Hours Podcast
The Impacts of the Plague of 20 20
All of the impacts of the cases above are deeply uncertain. As one vital statistics range from a best very apache 19 18 to absent. Other coincident events can offer competing or over determining explanations. For example, it's not clear the plague of justinian should be on the list at all. Even if one takes the supposed impacts of each at face value, each has features that may disqualify it as a true global catastrophe. 20 20 has already caused grave harm to human kind, and, regrettably, is likely to cause much more. Fortunately, it seems unlikely to cause as much harm as the historical cases noted here.
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