Jim Leitner on Creating a Macro Edge, Trading Options and Carry Trades
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
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How to Price a Two-Year Forward Option
Brazil's policies seem to be working well, attracting capital in the flows. Could the dollar in general start dropping over the next two years? It easily could because we have a current account deficit of trillion dollars a year. So as that happens, what I do is I look at the probability they've tried in that option. And if the market is at 20% and I believe it's at least 60%, 70% chance that that's going to happen, then that's really interesting bet.
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