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Humble Forecasting, Hopeful Outlook
Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
The Fed Could Make Two Mistakes
A Wall Street Journal article surveyed comics about a month ago, and they said the average probability was 65%. In the last 100 years, there's been 14 NBR recessions. But all the unknowns have a symmetric distribution, which includes good news. The Fed could make two mistakes: It could tighten too much and it could tighten too little.
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