SI346: Is the Trend Still Your Friend ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
Intro
This chapter explores current market trends, specifically in April, while examining Giffen goods and their relationship to U.S. Treasury bonds. It reflects on the complexities of investing in safe assets amidst today's economic challenges.
This episode is all about understanding the nuances of trend-following and how current market dynamics are shaking things up. Together with Rob Carver, we discuss the turbulence that hit financial markets in April and how that affected Trend Followers, as well as how Rob navigated the last 12 months as a trend follower. Plus, we explore the intriguing topic of safe haven assets, questioning if traditional choices like U.S. treasury bonds still hold up under pressure. We also explore a paper that the discuss the pros and cons of simplicity over complexity in strategy design.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?
06:59 - Society is going crazy
09:47 - Industry performance update
16:22 - How to capture the bounce in trailing stops
23:20 - Industry performance numbers
25:18 - Q1, Niall: What books would you recommend for a young quant entering the CTA space today?
29:05 - Reviewing Rob's annual trend following performance
36:26 - Should we start to rethink our approach to drawdowns?
40:45 - How do we stop investors from projecting market expectations to trend following performance
44:16 - How Rob defines slippage
50:12 - What if we base our trend system on one indicator?
54:18 - Does this trend following thing still work?
58:56 - Getting to know the founders of trend following
01:01:09 - Rob's approach to leveraged ETFs
01:07:27 - What is up for next week?
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