What's the Difference Between a v Shaped Recovery and a Swosh Recovery?

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We had a v shaped recovery back then, and it doesn't seem that you're confident about a v shaped recovery right now. This time round, i know i'm definitely in the kind of swosh camp, modified swoosh. I don't have a strong set of priors about what a recovery from a collective, simultaneous shut down of this scale looks like. So we have to be quite careful about making comparisons with u s or europe, where we've had multiple woohansile outbreaks. And i am quite suspicious of the comparisons which treat china as a national aggregate and then say, whell, that's our future....

Adam Tooze is best known for his highly-regarded books on the economic history of Nazi Germany, the remaking of the global economic and political order starting in World War I, and his account of how the economic effects of the 2008 financial crisis rippled across the globe for a decade to follow. Recently, he’s become an influential voice on Twitter documenting the pandemic-induced strain on the world’s financial systems.

Adam joined Tyler to discuss the historically unusual decision to have a high-cost lockdown during a pandemic, why he believes in a swoosh-shaped recovery, portents of financial crises in China and the West, which emerging economies are currently most at risk, what Keynes got wrong about the Treaty of Versailles, why the Weimar Republic failed, whether Hitler was a Keynesian, the political and economic prospects of various EU members, his trick to writing a lot, how Twitter encourages him to read more, what he taught executives at BP, his advice for visiting Germany, and more.

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Recorded April 16th, 2020 Other ways to connect

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