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Adam Tooze on our Financial Past and Future
Conversations with Tyler
What's the Difference Between a v Shaped Recovery and a Swosh Recovery?
We had a v shaped recovery back then, and it doesn't seem that you're confident about a v shaped recovery right now. This time round, i know i'm definitely in the kind of swosh camp, modified swoosh. I don't have a strong set of priors about what a recovery from a collective, simultaneous shut down of this scale looks like. So we have to be quite careful about making comparisons with u s or europe, where we've had multiple woohansile outbreaks. And i am quite suspicious of the comparisons which treat china as a national aggregate and then say, whell, that's our future....
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