The Intuitive Prediction Approach

The approach builds on your intuition, but it moderates it regresses it toward the mean. Intuitive predictions need to be corrected because they are not regressive and therefore are biased. When you have good reasons to trust the accuracy of your intuitive prediction, a strong correlation between the evidence and the prediction, the adjustment will be small. You end up at step four with a prediction that is influenced byyour intuition, but is far more moderate.