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Humanity on the precipice (Toby Ord)

Rationally Speaking Podcast

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I Could Be Wrong, but I'm Not Sure

There's a weird disconnect that i've noticed where people talk about the modal probability outcome of climate changes if it's axistentially bad. But they could be talking about the 90 fifth percentile outcome of climate change, and that might actually be accidentally bad but it's unclear. It is a complex message to say climate change on the whole, you know, with the most likely senarios are going to be somewhere between good and extremely bad or something. And even though that's a small chance and one that's very hard to quantify, that could still be the most important thing about it.

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