TsviBT
Tsvi's context Some context:
My personal context is that I care about decreasing existential risk, and I think that the broad distribution of efforts put forward by X-deriskers fairly strongly overemphasizes plans that help if AGI is coming in <10 years, at the expense of plans that help if AGI takes longer. So I want to argue that AGI isn't extremely likely to come in <10 years.
I've argued against some intuitions behind AGI-soon in Views on when AGI comes and on strategy to reduce existential risk.
Abram, IIUC, largely agrees with the picture painted in AI 2027: https://ai-2027.com/
Abram and I have discussed this occasionally, and recently recorded a video call. I messed up my recording, sorry--so the last third of the conversation is cut off, and the beginning is cut off. Here's a link to the first point at which [...]
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Outline:(00:17) Tsvis context
(06:52) Background Context:
(08:13) A Naive Argument:
(08:33) Argument 1
(10:43) Why continued progress seems probable to me anyway:
(13:37) The Deductive Closure:
(14:32) The Inductive Closure:
(15:43) Fundamental Limits of LLMs?
(19:25) The Whack-A-Mole Argument
(23:15) Generalization, Size, & Training
(26:42) Creativity & Originariness
(32:07) Some responses
(33:15) Automating AGI research
(35:03) Whence confidence?
(36:35) Other points
(48:29) Timeline Split?
(52:48) Line Go Up?
(01:15:16) Some Responses
(01:15:27) Memers gonna meme
(01:15:44) Right paradigm? Wrong question.
(01:18:14) The timescale characters of bioevolutionary design vs. DL research
(01:20:33) AGI LP25
(01:21:31) come on people, its \[Current Paradigm\] and we still dont have AGI??
(01:23:19) Rapid disemhorsepowerment
(01:25:41) Miscellaneous responses
(01:28:55) Big and hard
(01:31:03) Intermission
(01:31:19) Remarks on gippity thinkity
(01:40:24) Assorted replies as I read:
(01:40:28) Paradigm
(01:41:33) Bio-evo vs DL
(01:42:18) AGI LP25
(01:46:30) Rapid disemhorsepowerment
(01:47:08) Miscellaneous
(01:48:42) Magenta Frontier
(01:54:16) Considered Reply
(01:54:38) Point of Departure
(02:00:25) Tsvis closing remarks
(02:04:16) Abrams Closing Thoughts
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First published: July 15th, 2025
Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5tqFT3bcTekvico4d/do-confident-short-timelines-make-sense ---
Narrated by
TYPE III AUDIO.
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