Why the 2023 recession call failed

This week, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Frances Donald, Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and regular commentator on CNBC, Fox News and Bloomberg. Tune in to talk what really matters in markets right now, and what most investors are still missing.

With geopolitics flaring, commodities surging, and uncertainty everywhere from Washington to Tokyo, the team unpack the difference between cyclical noise and structural change, and why traditional economic playbooks may no longer work. Expect deep macro insight, plenty of laughs, and a fresh way of thinking about inflation, labour markets, AI, and the future of growth.

This Week’s Highlights

🌍 Geopolitics Everywhere

Trump, Iran, Venezuela and Greenland keep markets on edge, with slow-burn risks proving harder to price than headline shocks.

⛏️ Commodities Take the Lead

Gold, silver, copper and mining stocks power higher as inflation hedging, geopolitics and supply constraints collide.

🏦 Banks & Bonds in Focus

US bank earnings beat expectations, but political pressure on credit card rates rattles lenders and investors.

🪙 Crypto Stabilises

Bitcoin rebounds, helped by renewed institutional buying and improving sentiment after recent volatility.

🇯🇵 Japan Breaks the Trend

A snap election sends the yen lower and Japanese bond yields higher, the only major market seeing rising yields this week.

Special Guest: Frances Donald

Frances Donald, Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, joins the team to explain why the old business cycle framework is breaking down, and what should replace it.

She covers:

• Why mass retirements are reshaping labour markets
• How demographics are flattening economic cycles
• Why inflation risks haven’t disappeared, just gone quiet
• The rise of “structural” growth drivers like healthcare, AI and government spending
• Why Canada may be far better positioned in the new global order than many investors realise

Plus: why economists got 2023 so wrong, and what they need to do differently going forward.

Portfolio Snapshot

Weekly performance: +1.9%

Total return since inception: +16.2%

Top Performers:

🥇 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: +6.4%

🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +4.7%

🥉 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +2.3%

⛏️ WisdomTree Copper ETF: +2.0%

Underperformers:

📉 Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF: -1.4%

📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: -0.5%

📉 iShares S&P 500 GBP Hedged ETF: -0.5%

📉 Vanguard FTSE 250 ETF: -0.4%

What You’ll Learn

✔️ Why demographics matter more than GDP cycles

✔️ How retirements are changing inflation and growth dynamics

✔️ Why traditional recession indicators failed

✔️ How geopolitics really feeds into asset prices

✔️ Why diversification is finally paying off again

📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides

View the portfolio breakdown: here

📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.com

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Disclaimer

This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.



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