I Beg To Differ
The Memo by Howard Marks
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How to Earn Above Average Returns With Active Bets
There's no way to make an active bet such that you'll win if it works, but not lose if it doesn't. Financial innovations are often described as ring some version of this impossible bargain, but they invariably fail to live up to the hype. Investing strikes me as being very much like golf, where playing conditions and the performance of competitors can change from day to day,. The same is true for investors. To win you have to either do a better job than others of selecting your approach, or executing on it, or both.
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