Is the Outside View a Good Predictor?

Super forecasters tend to have less confidence in their predictions, he says. A good predictor tends to employ what's called an outside view of the world," Rint: "I believe that phrase may have come from danny connoman" Research has shown prediction markets are better at predicting than pundits because they represent a diversity of point-of-view and can be used by companies trying to launch new products or businesses.