No Stupid Questions 53. What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction?
May 23, 2021
Explore the art of making predictions and the emotional biases that can lead to missteps. Learn about the traits of successful forecasters, the value of diverse perspectives, and strategies for improving accuracy. Delve into the reality of bad days for high achievers, uncovering the myth of constant positivity. Discover how to embrace setbacks as growth opportunities and utilize techniques like journaling and self-affirmation. Reflect on lessons learned from past challenges and find healthier ways to recover from tough moments.
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Solomon's Predictions
- Stephen Dubner's son, Solomon, makes objective political predictions, un swayed by personal biases.
- He accurately predicted election outcomes, even when they contradicted popular opinion and polling data.
Expert Predictions
- Experts are often bad at predicting the future due to overconfidence and hindsight bias.
- Their predictions are only slightly better than random chance, according to Phil Tetlock's research.
Confidence Intervals
- To be a superforecaster, avoid narrow confidence intervals and overconfidence.
- Acknowledge a wide range of possibilities and accept uncertainty in predictions.