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Robin Hanson: How Global Elites Manufactured Stagnation and How We Escape
From the New World
How to Make Call Off Trades in a Conditional Prediction Market
The key idea is you're going to make called off trades. You'r oi to make trades conditional on a decision being made. If the decision isn't being made, then all those trades will be as if nothing happened. And so your interest in making those trades is proportional to the chance that that will be the decision.
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