The Black Swan
What You Will Learn
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Understanding Black Swans and Cognitive Biases
This chapter explores the concept of black swan events—rare, unpredictable occurrences that shape our world, and how our reliance on flawed models can blind us to their impact. It examines cognitive biases, particularly the narrative fallacy, illustrating how simplistic storytelling can distort reality and affect decision-making. Additionally, the chapter critiques the overconfidence shown by bureaucracies and media in their predictions, emphasizing the inherent limitations of forecasting in a complex, unpredictable world.
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