AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Judging Probability by Representativeness
Judging probability by representativeness has important virtues. The intuitive impressions that it produces are often, indeed, usually, more accurate than chance guesses would be. But exclusive reliance on it is associated with grave sins against statistical logic. One sin of representaiveness is an excessive willingness to predict the occurrence of unlikely events.