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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Using Probabilities to Make Better Decisions
The field of decision analysis teaches us that you can train yourself to translate your expert intuition, which is what you might call gut into numbers. And by repeatedly training yourself to state them in numbers, you can over time become calibrated to where those are predictive and feeding into quantitative models. If you do that, the combination of expert skill, expert intuition combined with a rigorous approach to decomposing a problem can add up to making better decisions.
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