The Best Chess Players Are All Young, Right?

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Arpe shos ato features in its counter actual forecasting tournaments under the rubric of focus. If any of your listeners are interested in signing up to be fourcasters for focus, we still have one more round round five and we will be recruiting people. I'm not a super for caster. I don't play civilization five, but civilization five was one of the a simulations that arpe shs ato feature in its counter Actual Forecast tournament. And you have to invest a lot of energy mastering a game like like, like civilization five. As people get older, they may become less likely to make those kinds of conitive investments....

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension.

He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more.

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Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect

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