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The Predictability and Surprise Factor of AI Models
The speakers discuss the predictability of AI models and the surprise factor associated with their behavior, speculating that GPT three might bring more unexpected elements. They also explore the disorientation and surprise experienced when people don't have an exponential view of AI progress, drawing a parallel with the exponential growth of COVID. The chapter highlights the faster emergence of new capabilities and the difficulty of predicting progress on specific capabilities compared to overall impressiveness.