5min chapter

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#634: Niall Ferguson, Historian — The Coming Cold War II, Visible and Invisible Geopolitics, Why Even Atheists Should Study Religion, Masters of Paradox, Fatherhood, Fear, and More

The Tim Ferriss Show

CHAPTER

What's the Probability of a Cold War?

The United States and China have been in this kind of Cold War situation for at least four years, maybe longer. There's some probability that they end up in a hot war because what's a Cold War? George Orwell coined the phrase to mean a piece that is no peace. The thing about Cold Wars is that by and large people in the West don't really notice their beginning and take a while to understand the scale of the challenge. And I often think that if one makes a right prediction, it's more luck that it turns out to be right than judgment. Because this is a complex system of enormous complexity.

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