My Wildest Prediction cover image

‘People will stop making predictions’ David Spiegelhalter says

My Wildest Prediction

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The Constructed Nature of Probabilities and Their Validation

This chapter explores the idea that probabilities are not inherent in the world but are subjective assessments based on knowledge and models. It discusses how to evaluate these constructed probabilities for accuracy and their application across different fields like weather forecasting and sports predictions.

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