How to Describe Your Effectiveness as a Rationalist

The actual percentage of you that survive in Everett branches or tech mock worlds is determined by the algorithm that decided that decided which conclusion you would seek arguments for. There's a similar difficulty in like evolution rates. So if you're only updating based on outcome and not based on method, then in harsh learning environments, you won't necessarily do as well in compared to generous or gentle learning environments. The difference between chess and poker, right?