What Are Your Odds on a Recession?

I was at 60% probability of recession in the next year. I think I'm now at two-thirds. Housing clearly is going down. That's a good thing. From a monetary policy perspective, if you're raising interest rates, you want to slow growth. It's got to come out of housing. Bad news is good news. No doubt. But the likelihood that we can then pivot and stop that wave precisely so that we don't cause a recession seems pretty unlikely to me. Therefore, as you said, I raise my odds because the curve inverted more this week.