11min chapter

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis cover image

Surveying 2,700+ AI Researchers on the Industry's Future with Katja Grace of AI Impacts

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis

CHAPTER

Understanding AI Researchers' Predictions and Challenges in Data Collection

Exploring the methodologies and challenges involved in collecting data on AI researchers' opinions and predictions regarding high-level machine intelligence and full automation of labor. From framing questions to forming probability distributions, the chapter delves into the complex process of forecasting future technology phenomena. The speakers analyze a survey conducted on over 2,700 AI researchers, discussing distribution patterns, timing predictions, and the varying probabilities assigned to different scenarios.

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