Humble Forecasting, Hopeful Outlook
Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Is the Fed Going to Be Fighting to Get Inflation Down?
If I had spent every year since 1985 simply predicting that inflation will be 2% next year, I would have been close nearly every time. And so, you know, it is really hard for complicated models to do better than dumb predictions like that. So my guess is we're looking at roughly two for until some point at which the Fed changes its mind about what its target is.
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