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Humanity on the precipice (Toby Ord)
Rationally Speaking Podcast
How to Use Near Misses in Estimates of Probability
In your book you talk about looking at near misses, where we didn't go extinct, but we got kind of close. How would we incorporate near misses into the estimate? Yesi thi there's just one way of doing it. Ah, but it is an example of how you can try to tackle this problem of not having the long run, historical track record.
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