Are Experts Predictions Really Better Than Throwing Darts at a Dart Board?

Experts predictions are really only very slightly better than throwing darts at a dart board. So why is it they are so confident? It may be that, first of all, many experts are making quotunquote predictions in hind sight. The other reason i think confidence ends up becoming a hall mark of commentators who weassume to be experts at what they do. And there might be a weak positive correlation between the confidence in your judgment and its accuracy.