Deploy or innovate? Scale up an existing technology or develop a breakthrough? Build, build, build, or invent a better mousetrap?
The question isn’t which strategy to follow; it’s which strategy to use in which sector. Virtually no one thinks that solar needs brand new tech breakthroughs to scale. Crystalline silicone took the lion’s share of the market years ago from cadmium telluride, amorphous silicon, CIGS and other early solar technologies.
But in carbon removal, batteries, nuclear, and other industries — should we develop new technologies, or scale up a promising few?
In this episode, Shayle talks to his colleague Andy Lubershane about the better mousetrap fallacy in climate tech. Andy is the head of research and a partner at Energy Impact Partners. He argues that, in certain industries, investing in building a better mousetrap is a bad use of capital, and that too many options causes analysis paralysis for would-be customers.
Shayle and Andy cover topics like:
- How scaling up technologies – as Chinese manufacturers have scaled up solar and batteries – drives down cost
- Why new technologies that aren’t five or 10 times better than an incumbent may fail to beat the cost curve
- Whether batteries need breakthroughs, and how Andy thinks about lithium-iron-phosphate, sodium-ion, thermal, and iron-air
- Why Andy thinks that the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions should license more new projects than new technologies
- The challenge of having more direct air capture technologies than buyers
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