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Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Entrepreneurship (with Miles Lasater)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Super Forecasting Techniques Are Really Powerful
I learned a lot about this by reading super forecasting and talking about how non-experts can beat experts in forecasting. And if I recall correctly, some of the techniques that the super forecasters were able to use to be more successful is one, giving actual probability estimates. So they're essentially trying to turn this gut feeling of confidence into a number more and more accurately over time.
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