Do You Think Dominic Cummings Is Influenced by You?

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i suppose the most prominent political fan i have at the moment is probably one of the senior advisers to boris johnson, dominic cummings. He fears that parts of the civil service are hostile toward brexet and nd wont to undermine a the boris johnson administration objectives. The people in singapore who are your true fans? Well, there are some people in singapore, tood, that's an interesti its an interesting e. I think we may have partly paid some price for that. To put it kindly, the slowness of the trump administration responds to covid nineteen, yes. It’s not just about the uk. It...

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension.

He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more.

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Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect

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