The MTA is planning to start construction on the second phase of the Second Avenue Subway Line in 2024. When we first published this episode a few years ago, the cost was projected at $6 billion. It's now up to nearly $8 billion. How much would Dr. H be willing to bet on a timely on-budget completion? I'm not a betting man.
Whether it’s a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it’ll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That’s because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.” (You also have an “optimism bias” and a bad case of overconfidence.) But don’t worry: we’ve got the solution.