Markets Are Quiet. Too Quiet.
Many Happy Returns
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The Uncertainty Index
If we accept this argument that we are in particularly uncertain times, the question is what do we do about it as investors? But I think it really depends on which way you think it's going to go in terms of uncertainty. If it's a positive outcome, which is falling inflation, not a big fall in US growth, well, then it's all guns blazing for risky assets. Then we'd hit new all-time highs within the next 12 months, probably, wouldn't we? No question. And if you look at the surprise index right now, and Yardini publishes it regularly, it is heading upwards quite aggressively right now. So that's a good surprise, a surprise birthday
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