Is Russia a Paper Bear and What Recent Events Show

What happens when a superpower’s bluff runs out? Jacob and Marko trace Russia’s unraveling - from collapsing refineries and fading deterrence to the myth of its “paper bear” strength. They ask what real power looks like when fear no longer works, why Europe feels emboldened, and how Ukraine’s strategy is quietly rewriting modern warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the cousins explore the rise of “garrison states,” Gen Z unrest, and whether AI is revolution... or just another container ship.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:54) - Personal Anecdotes and Cultural Observations

(02:28) - Geopolitical Analysis: Russia and Ukraine

(06:19) - Strategic Insights: Ukraine's Tactical Moves

(09:16) - European Union and Ukraine Relations

(14:36) - Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios

(18:43) - Economic and Political Implications

(32:38) - European Unity and Putin's Miscalculations

(34:21) - European Sentiment on Russia

(34:55) - Middle East Geopolitical Updates

(37:23) - Gen Z Protests Around the World

(41:31) - Generational Politics in the US

(48:44) - AI's Economic Impact

(01:08:02) - Debating the Future of AI and Marketability

(01:08:37) - Nostalgia and the Evolution of Computer Games

(01:10:03) - The Shift in Consumer Preferences

(01:11:52) - AI's Impact on Future Job Markets

(01:14:50) - US vs China: Different Approaches to AI

(01:15:42) - The Role of Tech Companies in AI Development

(01:26:31) - The Overbuild of Data Centers and Energy Needs

(01:30:28) - The Myth of AGI and True Innovation

(01:37:59) - Concluding Thoughts on AI and Innovation

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Referenced in the Show:

AI Will Not Make You Rich — https://joincolossus.com/article/ai-will-not-make-you-rich/

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro