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Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Today, Valentin Rousseau (a.k.a as Muad Dib on X), a bitcoin mining researcher who's worked with Hash Labs and the University of Cambridge, joins us to discuss his Blockspace report on hashrate forecasting for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Valentin breaks down his methodology for predicting Bitcoin's hashrate trajectory, analyzes hashrate deployment schedules for public miners, unpacks how tariffs could slow U.S. hashrate growth – and thus the Bitcoin network’s growth as well, and answers the question: will we still see 1 zetahash in 2025?
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# Notes:
- Projected ~1000 EH/s by end of 2025
- Forecast: 1700 EH/s by end of 2027
- Public miners = 37% of global hashrate
- US tariffs reduced 2025 forecast by 60 EH/s
- Private miners leading international expansion
- ASIC prices flattened since 2022 crash
Timestamps:
00:00 Start
02:27 2025 Mining Outlook
06:28 Public miner success rate
08:30 2026 & 2027 Outlook
11:27 Hashrate prediction 2027
13:59 Accounting for tariffs
16:14 US domestic vs International
17:10 Private vs public hashrate
20:06 Machine purchases
24:34 Greenfield vs Brownfield sites
29:34 Map of US hashrate
31:54 Hashrate averages
35:57 Wrap up
49:29 Vibe shift
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