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“We’re In Uncharted Territory” | Warren Pies on Treasury Issuance, Housing Market, Oil, And Recession Risk
Forward Guidance
The Fall of Big Cap Stocks
Big cap stocks have been struggling despite positive fundamental data points like beating earning estimates and raising guidance. In Q2, only stocks that rallied were the ones with increased guidance and lower PE stocks. The rally in stock prices was mainly due to multiple expansion rather than earnings growth, with 80% attributed to margin expansion. The stock market bet heavily on margins widening in 2024, which was considered unconvincing. The rally in stock prices this year was not so much due to increased earnings expectations but rather because they stopped declining, indicating a cyclical upturn. Analysts were incorporating this anticipated earnings upturn into stock prices.
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