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Duration vs credit vs convexity
In the bond market, there are three main risks to consider: duration, credit, and convexity. Duration refers to the timing of getting the money back, with longer maturities being riskier. Credit risk is reflected in the spread between investment grade and junk bonds, which is currently tighter than historical averages. Convexity, measured by the move index, is an attractive trade due to its high volatility compared to historical averages. When building a portfolio, it's essential to consider and adjust exposure to all three risks based on the market view. Presently, overweighting convexity, underweighting credit, and pulling into shorter duration on the curve is recommended.