The tendency of pessimists to avoid being wrong

Pessimists often seem smart by shifting the goalposts when their predictions are proven wrong. An example is Paul R. Erlich, who made inaccurate forecasts about the world ending and England's existence. The distinction is made between criticism and pessimism, where criticism is crucial for effective optimism. It is noted that most world-changing innovators have been optimists, emphasizing the importance of working through ideas to discover the most promising ones.

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