2min snip

The Michael Shermer Show cover image

The Science of Happines

The Michael Shermer Show

NOTE

Predicting Human Behavior is Highly Contingent

Predicting human behavior, whether it is about committing suicide, being a school shooter, or making decisions like Putin invading Ukraine, is complex and nearly impossible. People themselves often don't understand their own actions. A study involving 160 social science teams used various causal variables to predict life outcomes of at-risk families over 15 years, including child GPA, material hardship, and employment. Despite using statistical tools and AI machine learning, the results were deemed underwhelming due to the complexity and unpredictability of human behavior.

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