Ep 198: Bayesianism
ToKCast
The Limitations of Probability in Tracking Reality
Transitioning from statistics to probability involves a significant logical leap as probability does not precisely mirror reality. The challenges with Bayesianism arise from this discrepancy, extending beyond mere hypothetical examples to encompass real-world scenarios like coin tosses, influenced by the laws of physics rather than strict probability axioms. Physical coins deviate from the ideal 50-50 probability due to their material nature. While abstract mathematics remains unaffected by these limitations, practical applications in the physical world encounter disparities between probability and real-world outcomes.
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