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TIP609: Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
The Illusion of Security in Familiar Experiences
Focusing solely on familiar experiences can create a false sense of security, akin to playing with a revolver where most chambers are empty but one holds a bullet. This leads people to underestimate risks and overlook potential dangers, like black swan events. While we can estimate odds, true probabilities are often unknown. Obsessing over outcomes without considering the randomness behind them and alternative histories can fuel delusion and careless decision-making.
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