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Episode 90: Bayesianism for Critical Rationalists!?
The Theory of Anything
The different types of probability
Classical probability involves mathematical approaches to simple games, such as dice and cards, which is widely accepted even by those struggling with probability concepts. Logical probability is evaluated based on favorable outcomes relative to total outcomes under specific assumptions. Empirical probability counts favorable events over total events observed. Poparian probability aligns with empirical probability but applies more strict criteria. Subjective probability refers to algorithmic or deterministic insights structured on existing information and assumptions, while intuitive probability relies on instinct and estimations, often leading to biases. A key distinction is made between subjective probability, which is portrayed as more methodical, and intuitive probability, which lacks the same rigor.
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